This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the  world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements  that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to  reach their goals. At the same time, there is contention among researchers as to what are the outcomes of NVCs.  Economic outcomes of NVCs are understudied: some authors state that democratization (which can be a result  of a NVCs) can lead to positive economic outcomes, while others believe that NVCs are detrimental to various  economic parameters. These critical gaps are addressed in this work by focusing on the establishment of the causal  effect of NVCs on economic growth and analyzing its variation depending on campaign’s type– successful, failed  or leading to democratization. Our dataset, that enhanced NAVCO 1.3 by addition of previously overlooked cases,  encompasses time period from 1950 until 2022. The results show that at average NVCs have a weak, but significant  short-term and medium-term negative effect on national income. At the same time, democratizing NVCs do not  lead to negative economic outcomes in medium-term albeit there is a negative and insignificant short-term shock. In  other words, campaigns that initiate a democratic transition effectively neutralize the long-term negative economic  consequences of instability and shock caused by NVCs.

Опубликован: 2025-09-12