Short-Term Shocks, Long-Term Shifts: Nonviolent Political Movements and Economic Activity

Vadim Ustyuzhanin, Egor Fain — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 15:05:33 +0300

This article aims to shed light on the economic consequences of the nonviolent campaigns (NVCs) across the world. The current era is shaped with various political transformations that are often driven by political movements that engage in NVCs. Some of them are successful and result in regime change while others fail and are unable to reach their goals. At the same time, there is contention among researchers as to what are the outcomes of NVCs. Economic outcomes of NVCs are understudied: some authors state that democratization (which can be a result of a NVCs) can lead to positive economic outcomes, while others believe that NVCs are detrimental to various economic parameters. These critical gaps are addressed in this work by focusing on the establishment of the causal effect of NVCs on economic growth and analyzing its variation depending on campaign’s type– successful, failed or leading to democratization. Our dataset, that enhanced NAVCO 1.3 by addition of previously overlooked cases, encompasses time period from 1950 until 2022. The results show that at average NVCs have a weak, but significant short-term and medium-term negative effect on national income. At the same time, democratizing NVCs do not lead to negative economic outcomes in medium-term albeit there is a negative and insignificant short-term shock. In other words, campaigns that initiate a democratic transition effectively neutralize the long-term negative economic consequences of instability and shock caused by NVCs.

Препринты НИУ ВШЭ

Short-Term Shocks, Long-Term Shifts: Nonviolent Political Movements and Economic Activity